HomeMy WebLinkAboutCI_SmartStreets_Corridors_MarketStudyResidentialZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
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908 735-6336
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Research & Strategic Analysis
MARKET POTENTIAL
West Side Corridors
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
April, 2014
For purposes of this analysis, the West Side Corridors Study Area encompasses census tracts 1, 5,
19 through 23, 25, and 111, covering the blocks between the Lincolnway to the north and
Western Avenue to the south in the City of South Bend, Indiana.
—Draw Areas—
As derived from migration, mobility and target market analysis, the draw areas (where those
households with the potential to move to the Study Area are likely to be moving from) for new
housing units in the West Side Corridors Study Area is shown as follows:
Market Potential by Draw Area
WEST SIDE CORRIDORS
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
City of South Bend: 54.2%
Balance of Saint Joseph County: 25.3%
Cook County (City of Chicago): 1.7%
Michiana Draw Area: 4.7%
Balance of U.S.: 14.1%
Total: 100.0%
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2014.
—Study Area Target Market Lifestages—
The households that currently live in the West Side Corridors Study Area are categorized by
lifestage and target market group as follows (see also Table A):
• Empty nesters and retirees—54.9 percent;
• Urban traditional and non-traditional families —25.8 percent; and
• Younger singles and childless couples—19.3 percent.
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MARKET POTENTIAL
West Side Corridors
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
April, 2014
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
—Annual Market Potential—
As derived by the target market methodology, up to 1,485 households represent the annual
potential market for the full range of new market-rate housing units in the West Side Corridors
Study Area. (See Table 1.)
—Housing Preferences—
The housing preferences of these draw area households—according to tenure (rental or
ownership) choices and broad financial capacity—are outlined as follows (see again Table 1):
Average Annual Market Potential
For New and Existing Housing Units
WEST SIDE CORRIDORS
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
NUMBER OF PERCENT
HOUSING TYPE HOUSEHOLDS OF TOTAL
Multi-family for-rent 700 47.1%
(lofts/apartments, leaseholder)
Multi-family for-sale 145 9.8%
(lofts/apartments, condo/co-op ownership)
Single-family attached for-sale 230 15.5%
(townhouses/rowhouses, fee-simple/
condominium ownership)
Low-range single-family detached 210 14.1%
(houses, fee-simple ownership)
Mid-range single-family detached 145 9.8%
(houses, fee-simple ownership)
High-range single-family detached 55 3.7%
(houses, fee-simple ownership)
Total 1,485 100.0%
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2014.
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MARKET POTENTIAL
West Side Corridors
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
April, 2014
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
—Target Markets—
The household groups that comprise the potential market for new housing units in the West
Side Corridors Study Area are (see also Table 2):
• Younger singles and childless couples—65 percent;
• Urban traditional and non-traditional families —21 percent; and
• Empty nesters and retirees—14 percent.
—Rental Distribution—
Based on the incomes and financial capabilities of the 700 households that represent the target
markets for new rental apartments in the West Side Corridors Study Area each year over the next
five years, the distribution of annual market potential by rent range would be summarized as
follows (see also Table 3):
Annual Market Potential For Rental Apartments
Distributed By Rent Range
WEST SIDE CORRIDORS
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLDS
RENT RANGE PER YEAR PERCENTAGE
$500–$750 250 35.7%
$750–$1,000 265 37.9%
$1,000–$1,250 100 14.3%
$1,250–$1,500 60 8.6%
$1,500 and up 25 3.5%
Total: 700 100.0%
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2014.
—For-Sale Distribution—
Based on the incomes and financial capabilities of the 145 households that represent the target
markets for new for-sale multi-family units (condominiums) in the Study Area each year over the
next five years, the distribution of annual market potential by price range would be summarized
as shown on the table following this page (see also Table 4):
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MARKET POTENTIAL
West Side Corridors
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
April, 2014
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
Annual Market Potential For For-Sale Condominium Units
Distributed By Price Range
WEST SIDE CORRIDORS
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
PRICE HOUSEHOLDS
RANGE PER YEAR PERCENTAGE
$100,000–$150,000 85 58.6%
$150,000–$200,000 30 20.7%
$200,000–$250,000 20 13.8%
$250,000 and up 10 6.9%
Total: 145 100.0%
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2014.
Based on the incomes and financial capabilities of the 230 households that represent the target
markets for new for-sale single-family attached units (townhouses/rowhouses) in the Study Area
each year over the next five years, the distribution of annual market potential by price range
would be summarized as follows (see also Table 5):
Annual Market Potential For For-Sale Townhouses/Rowhouses
Distributed By Price Range
WEST SIDE CORRIDORS
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
PRICE HOUSEHOLDS
RANGE PER YEAR PERCENTAGE
$100,000–$150,000 95 41.3%
$150,000–$200,000 80 34.8%
$200,000–$250,000 40 17.4%
$250,000 and up 15 6.5%
Total: 230 100.0%
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2014.
Based on the incomes and financial capabilities of the 210 households that represent the target
markets for new for-sale low-range single-family detached houses in the Study Area each year
over the next five years, the distribution of annual market potential by price range would be
summarized as shown on the table following this page (see also Table 6):
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MARKET POTENTIAL
West Side Corridors
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
April, 2014
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
Annual Market Potential For For-Sale Low-Range Single-Family Detached Houses
Distributed By Price Range
WEST SIDE CORRIDORS
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
PRICE HOUSEHOLDS
RANGE PER YEAR PERCENTAGE
$100,000–$150,000 75 35.7%
$150,000–$200,000 60 28.6%
$200,000–$250,000 40 19.0%
$250,000 and up 35 16.7%
Total: 210 100.0%
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2014.
Based on the incomes and financial capabilities of the 145 households that represent the target
markets for new for-sale mid-range single-family detached houses in the Study Area each year
over the next five years, the distribution of annual market potential by price range would be
summarized as follows (see also Table 7):
Annual Market Potential For For-Sale Mid-Range Single-Family Detached Houses
Distributed By Price Range
WEST SIDE CORRIDORS
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
PRICE HOUSEHOLDS
RANGE PER YEAR PERCENTAGE
$150,000–$200,000 40 27.6%
$200,000–$250,000 45 31.%
$250,000–$300,000 35 24.1%
$300,000 and up 25 17.2%
Total: 145 100.0%
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2014.
Based on the incomes and financial capabilities of the 55 households that represent the target
markets for new for-sale high-range single-family detached houses in the Study Area each year
over the next five years, the distribution of annual market potential by price range would be
summarized as shown on the table following this page (see also Table 8):
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MARKET POTENTIAL
West Side Corridors
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
April, 2014
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
Annual Market Potential For For-Sale High-Range Single-Family Detached Houses
Distributed By Price Range
WEST SIDE CORRIDORS
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
PRICE HOUSEHOLDS
RANGE PER YEAR PERCENTAGE
$200,000–$250,000 15 27.3%
$250,000–$300,000 25 45.5%
$300,000–$350,000 10 18.2%
$350,000 and up 5 9.0%
Total: 55 100.0%
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2014.
—Rental and For-Sale Housing Alternatives—
Eleven market-rate and income-restricted properties were surveyed in 2013 and updated in
2014, with rents now ranging from approximately $399 per month to over $2,600 per month
for studios to three-bedroom apartments. For non-student housing, unit sizes range from 400 to
more than 1,850 square feet ($0.52 to $1.86 per square foot. Depending on the property, rents
either have been raised by approximately five to 10 percent, or lowered by up to 10 percent.
With the exception of the Foundry, occupancy exceeds 95 percent at the surveyed properties.
(See Table 9.)
Few new condominium or townhouse properties are currently being marketed in South Bend;
those that are still selling units were introduced between 2006 and 2012, and have been
significantly affected by the collapse of the housing market. Townhouse prices currently start at
$172,999 for a 1,745-square-foot resale townhouse and exceed $450,000 for nearly 2,700 square
feet of living space on the East Bank ($99 to $270 per square foot). (See Table 10.)
According to the Multiple Listing Service, in April 2014, 36 single-family detached houses
constructed since 2004 had been listed for sale. Asking prices ranged from $49,500 for a 10-
year-old two-bedroom/one-bath house on Phillippa Street in southwest South Bend to nearly
$400,000 for a nine-year-old four-bedroom/three-bath model in the Fernwood subdivision in
Clay Township. House sizes range from approximately 1,000 to nearly 4,100 square feet, and
prices per square foot are as low as $46 to as much as $140. (See Table 11.)
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MARKET POTENTIAL
West Side Corridors
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
April, 2014
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
—Optimum Market Position for the Study Area—
Market-entry rents and prices for the first phases of new units in the Study Area should be
targeted to the lower ranges of affordability to respond to the largest segments of annual market
potential. Targeting households at the lower ranges of affordability, then, the appropriate
residential mix of new housing units would be as shown on the table following this page:
Target Residential Mix
WEST SIDE CORRIDORS
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
NUMBER OF PERCENT
HOUSING TYPE HOUSEHOLDS OF TOTAL
Multi-family for-rent 615 56.9%
(lofts/apartments, leaseholder)
Multi-family for-sale 115 10.7%
(lofts/apartments, condo/co-op ownership)115
Single-family attached for-sale 175 16.2%
(townhouses/rowhouses, fee-simple/
condominium ownership)
Low-range single-family detached 175 16.2%
(houses, fee-simple ownership)
Total 1,080 100.0%
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2014.
A mix of 224 new dwelling units (the number of new dwelling units that could be absorbed in
the Study Area over the next five years), distributed according to the percentages in the target
residential mix outlined above, is shown on the table on the following page:
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MARKET POTENTIAL
West Side Corridors
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
April, 2014
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
Target Residential Mix: 224 Dwelling Units
WEST SIDE CORRIDORS
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
PERCENT NUMBER OF
HOUSING TYPE OF TOTAL UNITS
Multi-family for-rent 56.9% 128
(lofts/apartments, leaseholder)
Multi-family for-sale 10.7% 24
(lofts/apartments, condo/co-op ownership)115
Single-family attached for-sale 16.2% 36
(townhouses/rowhouses, fee-simple/
condominium ownership)
Low-range single-family detached 16.2% 36
(houses, fee-simple ownership)
Total 100.0% 224
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2014.
Therefore, based on the housing propensities and the socio-economic and lifestyle characteristics
of the target households and the relevant residential context in the South Bend market area, the
rents and prices that could currently be sustained by the market for 224 newly-constructed
residential units in the West Side Corridors Study Area is as follows (see also Table 12):
Rent, Price and Size Ranges
WEST SIDE CORRIDORS
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
RENT/PRICE SIZE RENT/PRICE
HOUSING TYPE RANGE RANGE PER SQ. FT.
RENTAL—
Apartments Over Retail $600–$800/month 450–650 sf $1.23–$1.33 psf
Apartments $750–$1,250/month 550–1,000 sf $1.25–$1.36 psf
FOR-SALE—
Units in 4-unit bldgs $100,000–$135,000 650–950 sf $142–$154 psf
Units in 6-unit bldgs $110,000–$175,000 700–1,350 sf $130–$157 psf
Infill Rowhouses $145,000–$200,000 1,000–1,450 sf $138–$145 psf
Infill Detached Houses $165,000–$215,000 1,100–1,500 sf $143–$150 psf
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2014.
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MARKET POTENTIAL
West Side Corridors
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
April, 2014
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
Based on the unit types, sizes, and mix outlined in Table 12, the weighted average rent and
prices for each of the housing types is shown on the following table:
Weighted Average Base Rent and Prices
WEST SIDE CORRIDORS
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
WEIGHTED AVERAGE
HOUSING WEIGHTED AVERAGE WEIGHTED AVERAGE BASE RENT/PRICES
TYPE BASE RENT/PRICES UNIT SIZE PER SQ. FT.
Multi-family for-rent $942 per month 731 sf $1.29
Multi-family for-sale $130,000 913 $142
Single-family attached for-sale $172,500 1,225 $141
Single-family detached for-sale $190,000 1,300 $146
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2014.
The above rents and prices are in year 2014 dollars, are exclusive of consumer options and
upgrades, or floor or location premiums, and cover the broad range of rents and prices for newly-
developed units currently sustainable by the market.
New rental apartments should be developed as quickly as possible, at key intersections with the
Lincolnway. These units are likely to be occupied by younger singles and couples, who, once
they become comfortable living in the neighborhood, would be potential buyers of new
condominiums, rowhouses or small detached houses in the future.
Larger vacant lots or parcels in the Study Area could be infilled with four-unit condominium
buildings, or three or four new rowhouses, instead of one or two single-family houses.
It would be a tremendous asset to the marketing of new homes in the Study Area if, each year, a
certain percentage of places at the top-rated Kennedy Primary Academy on North Olive Street
and Lasalle Intermediate Academy on Elwood Avenue were made available to qualified students
living in the Study Area.
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MARKET POTENTIAL
West Side Corridors
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
April, 2014
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
—Absorption Projections—
Zimmerman/Volk Associates has determined that, over the near term, those households that
prefer new construction, rather than previously-occupied units, currently represent 10 percent of
the potential rental market, and five percent of the potential for-sale market for new housing in
the West Side Corridors Study Area, assuming the production of appropriately-positioned new
housing. (Until the collapse of the housing market in the fall of 2008, newly-constructed
dwelling units comprised approximately 15 percent of all units sold in the nation; in 2012, that
percentage had dropped to just 8.5 percent of all units sold.) Over the longer term, as the
housing market continues to improve, the rental capture rate should rise to 12 percent and the
for-sale capture rate should rise to 8.5 percent.
Based on a capture of 10 to 12 percent of the potential market for the lower rents of new rental
housing, and a five to 8.5 percent capture of the potential market for the lower ranges of new
for-sale housing units, then, the West Side Corridors Study Area should be able to absorb 85
new units per year over the short term, and, potentially, up to 113 new housing units per year
over the longer term, as follows:
Annual Capture of Market Potential
WEST SIDE CORRIDORS
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
NUMBER OF CAPTURE NUMBER OF
HOUSING TYPE HOUSEHOLDS RATE NEW UNITS
Rental Multi-Family 615 10% to 12% 62 to 74
(lofts/apartments, leaseholder)
For-Sale Multi-Family 115 5% to 8.5% 6 to 10
(lofts/apartments, condo/co-op ownership)
For-Sale Single-Family Attached 175 5% to 8.5% 9 to 15
(townhouses/rowhouses, fee-simple ownership)
For-Sale Single-Family Low-Range Detached 175 5% to 8.5% 9 to 15
(urban houses, fee-simple ownership)
Total 1,080 85 to 113
SOURCE: Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc., 2014.
o
Table A Page 1 of 4
2014 Household Classification by Market Groups
West Side Corridors Study Area
Household Type/Estimated Estimated
Geographic Designation Number Share
Empty Nesters
& Retirees 3,835 54.9%
Metropolitan Cities 0 0.0%
Small Cities/Satellite Cities 2,330 33.4%
Metropolitan Suburbs 615 8.8%
Town & Country/Exurbs 890 12.7%
Traditional &
Non-Traditional Families 1,805 25.8%
Metropolitan Cities 0 0.0%
Small Cities/Satellite Cities 960 13.7%
Metropolitan Suburbs 425 6.1%
Town & Country/Exurbs 420 6.0%
Younger
Singles & Couples 1,345 19.3%
Metropolitan Cities 65 0.9%
Small Cities/Satellite Cities 960 13.7%
Metropolitan Suburbs 170 2.4%
Town & Country/Exurbs 150 2.1%
Total City Households:6,985 100.0%
Estimated Median Income:$29,620
Estimated Median Home Value:$75,286
SOURCE:The Nielsen Company;
Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table A Page 2 of 4
2014 Household Classification by Market Groups
West Side Corridors Study Area
Estimated Estimated
Number Share
Estimated Estimated
Empty Nesters Median Median
& Retirees 3,835 54.9%Income Home Value
Metropolitan Cities
Urban Establishment 0 0.0%
Cosmopolitan Couples 0 0.0%
Multi-Ethnic Retirees 0 0.0%
Downtown Retirees 0 0.0%
Multi-Ethnic Seniors 0 0.0%
Subtotal:0 0.0%
Small Cities/Satellite Cities
Cosmopolitan Elite 10 0.1%$89,100 $234,200
Middle-Class Move-Downs 50 0.7%$58,900 $127,300
Blue-Collar Retirees 525 7.5%$50,000 $106,100
Hometown Retirees 1,310 18.8%$31,400 $74,100
Second City Seniors 435 6.2%$27,500 $78,300
Subtotal:2,330 33.4%
Metropolitan Suburbs
Old Money 0 0.0%
Suburban Establishment 10 0.1%$82,400 $226,000
Affluent Empty Nesters 5 0.1%$88,300 $226,600
Mainstream Retirees 0 0.0%
No-Nest Suburbanites 55 0.8%$58,300 $117,000
Middle-American Retirees 70 1.0%$56,800 $117,000
Suburban Retirees 260 3.7%$40,400 $82,300
Suburban Seniors 215 3.1%$36,200 $84,600
Subtotal:615 8.8%
Town & Country/Exurbs
Small-Town Establishment 20 0.3%$98,700 $276,600
New Empty Nesters 10 0.1%$84,900 $171,700
RV Retirees 45 0.6%$65,300 $126,300
Blue-Collar Empty Nesters 70 1.0%$63,800 $116,100
Exurban Suburbanites 80 1.1%$50,900 $96,000
Heartland Empty Nesters 215 3.1%$49,200 $101,700
Small-Town Seniors 80 1.1%$48,900 $106,600
Back Country Seniors 0 0.0%
Rural Seniors 40 0.6%$36,900 $76,600
Struggling Retirees 330 4.7%$36,100 $70,800
Subtotal:890 12.7%
SOURCE:The Nielsen Company;
Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table A Page 3 of 4
2014 Household Classification by Market Groups
West Side Corridors Study Area
Estimated Estimated
Number Share
Estimated Estimated
Traditional &Median Median
Non-Traditional Families 1,805 25.8%Income Home Value
Metropolitan Cities
Full-Nest Urbanites 0 0.0%
Multi-Cultural Families 0 0.0%
Inner-City Families 0 0.0%
Single-Parent Families 0 0.0%
Subtotal:0 0.0%
Small Cities/Satellite Cities
Unibox Transferees 20 0.3%$95,800 $233,800
Multi-Ethnic Families 115 1.6%$58,900 $128,400
In-Town Families 825 11.8%$35,000 $83,000
Subtotal:960 13.7%
Metropolitan Suburbs
The Social Register 0 0.0%
Nouveau Money 0 0.0%
Late-Nest Suburbanites 20 0.3%$85,700 $232,200
Full-Nest Suburbanites 10 0.1%$82,900 $204,400
Blue-Collar Button-Downs 65 0.9%$58,300 $117,000
Working-Class Families 330 4.7%$39,400 $75,800
Subtotal:425 6.1%
Town & Country/Exurbs
Ex-Urban Elite 0 0.0%
Full-Nest Exurbanites 25 0.4%$89,200 $163,500
New-Town Families 95 1.4%$67,100 $116,700
Small-Town Families 0 0.0%
Kids 'r' Us 175 2.5%$49,800 $111,000
Rustic Families 0 0.0%
Subsistence Families 125 1.8%$23,800 $61,400
Subtotal:420 6.0%
SOURCE:The Nielsen Company;
Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table A Page 4 of 4
2014 Household Classification by Market Groups
West Side Corridors Study Area
Estimated Estimated
Number Share
Estimated Estimated
Younger Median Median
Single & Couples 1,345 19.3%Income Home Value
Metropolitan Cities
e-Types 0 0.0%
New Bohemians 0 0.0%
Urban Achievers 0 0.0%
Soul City Singles 65 0.9%$27,300 $100,500
Subtotal:65 0.9%
Small Cities/Satellite Cities
The VIPs 5 0.1%$82,600 $233,600
Twentysomethings 20 0.3%$57,800 $136,900
Small-City Singles 60 0.9%$50,800 $115,200
Blue-Collar Singles 875 12.5%$33,700 $75,500
Subtotal:960 13.7%
Metropolitan Suburbs
The Entrepreneurs 5 0.1%$118,000 $353,500
Fast-Track Professionals 0 0.0%
Upscale Suburban Couples 10 0.1%$77,800 $172,600
Suburban Achievers 5 0.1%$56,400 $147,400
Working-Class Singles 150 2.1%$36,600 $103,800
Subtotal:170 2.4%
Town & Country/Exurbs
Ex-Urban Power Couples 0 0.0%
Cross-Training Couples 0 0.0%
Country Couples 0 0.0%
Small-Town Singles 5 0.1%$38,400 $93,800
Rural Singles 145 2.1%$29,200 $62,200
Subtotal:150 2.1%
SOURCE:The Nielsen Company;
Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table 1
Average Annual Market Potential For Market-Rate Dwelling Units
Derived From Rental And Purchase Propensities Of Draw Area Households
In Groups With Median Incomes Over $50,000
With The Potential To Move Within/To The Study Area Each Year Over The Next Five Years
West Side Corridors Study Area
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
City of South Bend; Balance of Saint Joseph County, Indiana;
Regional Draw Area and Balance of the United States
Draw Areas
Total Target Market Households
With Potential To Rent/Purchase In The
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana 4,475
Total Target Market Households
With Potential To Rent/Purchase In The
West Side Corridors Study Area 1,485
Study Area Average Annual Market Potential
Multi- Single-
. . . . . . Family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . Attached . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . Detached . . . . . . . . . . . . .
For-Rent For-Sale All Ranges Low-Range Mid-Range High-Range Total
Total Households:700 145 230 210 145 55 1,485
{Mix Distribution}:47.1%9.8%15.5%14.1%9.8%3.7%100.0%
NOTE:Reference Appendix One, Tables 1 Through 12.
SOURCE:The Nielsen Company;
Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table 2
Average Annual Market Potential For Market-Rate Units By Household Type
Derived From Rental And Purchase Propensities Of Draw Area Households
With The Potential To Move To The Study Area Each Year Over The Next Five Years
West Side Corridors Study Area
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
Multi- Single-
. . . . . . Family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . Attached . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . Detached . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Total For-Rent For-Sale All Ranges Low-Range Mid-Range High-Range
Number of
Households:1,485 700 145 230 210 145 55
Empty Nesters
& Retirees 14%3%18%17%31%31%27%
Traditional &
Non-Traditional Families 21%13%3%17%40%48%46%
Younger
Singles & Couples 65%84%79%66%29%21%27%
100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
SOURCE:The Nielsen Company;
Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table 3
Target Groups For New Multi-Family For-Rent
The West Side Corridors Study Area
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
Empty Nesters Number of
& Retirees Households Percent
Middle-Class Move-Downs 20 2.9%
Subtotal:20 2.9%
Traditional &
Non-Traditional Families
Unibox Transferees 10 1.4%
Latel-Nest Suburbanites 5 0.7%
Full-Nest Suburbanites 15 2.1%
Multi-Ethnic Families 60 8.6%
Subtotal:90 12.9%
Younger
Singles & Couples
Fast-Track Professionals 10 1.4%
The VIPs 20 2.9%
Upscale Suburban Couples 25 3.6%
Twentysomethings 55 7.9%
Suburban Achievers 230 32.9%
Small-City Singles 250 35.7%
Subtotal:590 84.3%
Total Households:700 100.0%
SOURCE:The Nielsen Company;
Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table 4
Target Groups For New Multi-Family For-Sale
The West Side Corridors Study Area
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
Empty Nesters Number of
& Retirees Households Percent
Cosmopolitan Elite 5 3.4%
Affluent Empty Nesters 5 3.4%
Middle-Class Move-Downs 15 10.3%
Subtotal:25 17.2%
Traditional &
Non-Traditional Families
Multi-Ethnic Families 5 3.4%
Subtotal:5 3.4%
Younger
Singles & Couples
Fast-Track Professionals 10 6.9%
The VIPs 10 6.9%
Upscale Suburban Couples 15 10.3%
Twentysomethings 25 17.2%
Small-City Singles 55 37.9%
Subtotal:115 79.3%
Total Households:145 100.0%
SOURCE:The Nielsen Company;
Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table 5
Target Groups For New Single-Family Attached For-Sale
The West Side Corridors Study Area
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
Empty Nesters Number of
& Retirees Households Percent
Cosmopolitan Elite 5 2.2%
Affluent Empty Nesters 5 2.2%
Suburban Establishment 5 2.2%
Middle-Class Move-Downs 25 10.9%
Subtotal:40 17.4%
Traditional &
Non-Traditional Families
Unibox Transferees 5 2.2%
Full-Nest Suburbanites 10 4.3%
Multi-Ethnic Families 25 10.9%
Subtotal:40 17.4%
Younger
Singles & Couples
The Entrepreneurs 5 2.2%
Fast-Track Professionals 10 4.3%
TheVIPs 20 8.7%
Upscale Suburban Couples 20 8.7%
Twentysomethings 30 13.0%
Small-City Singles 65 28.3%
Subtotal:150 65.2%
Total Households:230 100.0%
SOURCE:The Nielsen Company;
Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table 6
Target Groups For New Low-Range Single-Family Detached For-Sale
The West Side Corridors Study Area
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
Empty Nesters Number of
& Retirees Households Percent
Cosmopolitan Elite 5 2.4%
Suburban Establishment 10 4.8%
Mainstream Retirees 5 2.4%
Middle-Class Move-Downs 45 21.4%
Subtotal:65 31.0%
Traditional &
Non-Traditional Families
Unibox Transferees 5 2.4%
Late-Nest Suburbanites 10 4.8%
Full-Nest Suburbanites 25 11.9%
Multi-Ethnic Families 45 21.4%
Subtotal:85 40.5%
Younger
Singles & Couples
Fast-Track Professionals 5 2.4%
TheVIPs 10 4.8%
Upscale Suburban Couples 25 11.9%
Twentysomethings 5 2.4%
Small-City Singles 15 7.1%
Subtotal:60 28.6%
Total Households:210 100.0%
SOURCE:The Nielsen Company;
Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table 7
Target Groups For New Mid-Range Single-Family Detached For-Sale
The West Side Corridors Study Area
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
Empty Nesters Number of
& Retirees Households Percent
Cosmopolitan Elite 5 3.4%
Affluent Empty Nesters 5 3.4%
Suburban Establishment 5 3.4%
Mainstream Retirees 5 3.4%
Middle-Class Move-Downs 25 17.2%
Subtotal:45 31.0%
Traditional &
Non-Traditional Families
Unibox Transferees 15 10.3%
Late-Nest Suburbanites 5 3.4%
Full-Nest Suburbanites 20 13.8%
Multi-Ethnic Families 30 20.7%
Subtotal:70 48.3%
Younger
Singles & Couples
The Entrepreneurs 5 3.4%
TheVIPs 10 6.9%
Upscale Suburban Couples 10 6.9%
Small-City Singles 5 3.4%
Subtotal:30 20.7%
Total Households:145 100.0%
SOURCE:The Nielsen Company;
Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table 8
Target Groups For New High-Range Single-Family Detached For-Sale
The West Side Corridors Study Area
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
Empty Nesters Number of
& Retirees Households Percent
Cosmopolitan Elite 5 9.1%
Suburban Establishment 5 9.1%
Affluent Empty Nesters 5 9.1%
Subtotal:15 27.3%
Traditional &
Non-Traditional Families
Unibox Transferees 15 27.3%
Late-Nest Suburbanites 5 9.1%
Full-Nest Suburbanites 5 9.1%
Subtotal:25 45.5%
Younger
Singles & Couples
The Entrepreneurs 10 18.2%
TheVIPs 5 9.1%
Subtotal:15 27.3%
Total Households:55 100.0%
SOURCE:The Nielsen Company;
Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table 9 Page 1 of 3
Summary Of Selected Rental Properties
West Side Corridors Market Area, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
April, 2014
Number Unit Base Avg. Unit Rents per
Property of Units Type Rent Sizes Sq. Ft.Amenities
Address
Northside Terrace (1950s)72 Laundry facility.
501 Pennsylvania Avenue Studio/1ba $399 to 450 $0.89 to
South Bend Heritage Foundation $500 $1.11
1br/1ba $499 to 500 $1.00 to
$600 $1.20
2br/1ba $579 to 800 $0.72 to
$750 $0.94
2br/2ba $599 to 900 $0.67 to
$799 $0.89
3br/2ba $699 to 950 $0.74 to
$830 $0.87
Mar-Main Apts (1923)Fitness center,
125 W. Marion Street Studio/1ba $415 to 400 to $0.90 to lounge.
$495 550 $1.04 Utilities included.
1br/1ba $595 875 $0.68
1br/1ba/den $645 975 $0.66
1br/1ba/sunroom $645 975 $0.66
1br/1.5ba $685 985 $0.70
2br/1ba $695 1,200 $0.58
Robertson's Apts.Some Utilities
211 South Michian Studio/1ba $458 575 $0.80 included.
REMC 1br/1ba $560 725 $0.77
2br/1ba $660 887 $0.74 Seniors 55+
2br/1.5ba TH $700 1,040 $0.67
Washington Dunbar 80 Playground.
(Renovated 2010)1br/1ba $500 to 690 $0.72 to
118 N. Walnut Street $559 $0.81
South Bend Heritage Foundation 2br/1ba $527 to 1,020 to $0.52 to
$669 1,100 $0.61
3br/2ba $601 to 1,200 $0.50 to
$759 $0.63
Monroe Park Apts. (1994)57 Tax credit units.
526 Fellows Street 1br/1ba $519 700 $0.74
MGM Property Management 2br/1ba TH $609 945 $0.64
3br/2ba TH $709 1,020 $0.70
SOURCE:Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table 9 Page 2 of 3
Summary Of Selected Rental Properties
West Side Corridors Market Area, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
April, 2014
Number Unit Base Avg. Unit Rents per
Property of Units Type Rent Sizes Sq. Ft.Amenities
Address
Central HS Apts. (1913)106 Laundry facility.
330 West Colfax Avenue 1br/1ba $549 to 588 to $0.93 to
Forum Real Estate Group $699 607 $1.15
2br/1ba $699 to 840 $0.83 to
$1,400 1,061 $1.32
2br/1ba loft $900 to 1,122 $0.80 to
$1,200 $1.07
2br/1ba $1,200 to 1,413 to $0.75 to
$1,400 1,856 $0.85
Hurwich Farms 396 Fitness center,
2701 Appaloosa Lane 1br/1ba $600 to 688 to $0.80 to clubhouse, pool.
Edward Rose $675 841 $0.87 sport courts.
2br/2ba $740 to 922 to $0.78 to
$775 991 $0.80 Heat included.
The Annex Student Apts. 40 Fitness center,
{2014}1br/1ba $720 to 615 to $1.09 to Student lounge,
2007 Northside Boulevard 2 persons $770 709 $1.17 tanning bed.
Bradley Company 1br/1ba $780 to 615 to $1.17 to
1 person $830 709 $1.27
2br/2ba $599 pp
2 persons $1,198 786 $1.52
2br/2ba $649 pp
2 persons $1,298 909 $1.43
3br/2ba $539 pp
3 persons $1,617 1,092 $1.48
3br/2ba $589 pp
3 persons $1,767 1,252 $1.41
Pointe at St. Joseph 202 Fitness center,
307 East Lasalle Avenue 1br/1ba $840 to 784 to $1.07 to business center,
CAPREIT Residential $940 700 $1.34 clubhouse, pool.
2br/1.5ba $960 to 1,020 $0.94 to
$1,035 $1.01
2br/2ba $940 to 1,032 to $0.91 to
$1,160 1,151 $1.01
2br/2ba/den $1,165 to 1,076 $1.08 to
$1,240 $1.15
SOURCE:Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table 9 Page 3 of 3
Summary Of Selected Rental Properties
West Side Corridors Market Area, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
April, 2014
Number Unit Base Avg. Unit Rents per
Property of Units Type Rent Sizes Sq. Ft.Amenities
Address
Irish Row Student Apts. 40 Fitness center,
{2010}1br/1ba $895 pp 615 $1.46 Student lounge,
1855 Vaness Street 1br/1ba $995 pp 815 $1.22 tanning bed.
EdR Trust 2br/2ba $719 pp
2 persons $1,438 815 $1.76 Fully furnished
3br/3ba $695 pp units.
3 persons $2,085 1,020 $2.04
4br/4.5ba TH $839 pp
4 persons $3,356 1,020 to $2.80 to
1,200 $3.29
Stephenson Mills 40 Laundry facility.
332 West Colfax Avenue Loft/1.5ba $949 to 1,348 $0.70 to
(rental office address)$1,400 1,364 $1.03
Forum Real Estate Group 2br/2ba $950 1,514 $0.63
3br/2ba $1,050 1,464 $0.72
The Foundry Lofts (2009)266 Fitness center,
1233 North Eddy Street 1br/1ba $1,133 to 625 to $1.81 to business center,
Buckingham Companies $1,445 776 $1.86 concierge,
2br/2ba $1,478 to 866 to $1.43 to rooftop deck.
$1,753 1,223 $1.71
3br/2.5ba $1,653 to 1,159 to $1.43 to
$2,606 1,528 $1.71
SOURCE:Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table 10
Summary Of Selected For-Sale Multi-Family
And Single-Family Attached Developments
West Side Corridors Market Area, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
April, 2014
Unit Beds/Unit Price Unit Size Price Per Total Total
Development (Date Opened)Type Baths Range Range Sq. Ft.Units Sales
Address/Developer
Dublin Village (2006)TH . . . . . . . . . . Resales . . . . . . . . . .58 58
Cooreman Properties 3br/2.5ba $172,999 1,745 $99
3br/2.5ba $197,000 1,745 $113
Eddy Street Commons (2008). . . . . . . . . . Current Pricing . . . . . . . . . .
Legends Row CO 2br/2ba $219,900 815 $270 66 47
3br/2ba $350,000 1,350 $259 phase II selling
Champions Way TH 2-5br/3.5ba $390,000 2,150 to $181 62 46
and up 2,174
River Race (2012)TH 10 6
South NilesAvenue 3br/3.5ba $299,900 to 1,700 to $176 to
David Matthews $460,000 2,500 $184
Cottages of Pendle Woods Villas . . . . . . . . . . New Construction . . . . . . . . . .49 47
Foley Circle 3br/2ba $299,900 1,692 $177
Holladay Properties 3br/2ba $325,000 1,692 $192
. . . . . . . . . . Lot Prices . . . . . . . . . .
$35,000 to $55,000
Irish Crossings (2007)TH . . . . . . . . . . 2013 Pricing . . . . . . . . . .75 75
Burdett Street 3br/3.5ba $369,000 to 1,965 to $174 to
Cooreman Properties $369,900 2,120 $188
Ivy Quad (2008)CO/. . . . . . . . . . New Construction . . . . . . . . . .64 n/a
Burdette Street TH 4br/4.5ba $430,000 to 2,212 to $172 to phase I sold out
David Matthews $460,000 2,675 $194 phase II selling
SOURCE:Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table 11 Page 1 of 2
Summary of Selected Single-Family Listings
Houses Constructed Within The Past 10 Years
City of South Bend and Saint Joseph County, Indiana
April, 2014
Lot Unit List Unit
Subdivision/Area Size Year Built Price Size Price psf Configuration
Philippa Street 0.9 2004 $49,500 1,080 $46 2br/1ba
Hill Street 0.24 2013 $119,000 1,396 $85 3br/2ba
1.73 2013 $139,000 1,518 $92 3br/2.5ba
1.4 2013 $139,900 1,518 $92 3br/2ba
Fordham 1.6 2004 $139,900 1,437 $97 3br/2ba
Berry Knolls 0.3 2005 $144,900 1,382 $105 2br/2ba
Harvest Point 1.4 2004 $144,900 1,260 $115 3br/2ba
Fox Run 0.3 2008 $147,000 1,300 $113 3br/1.5ba
Augustine Lake Estates n/a 2013 $154,900 1,326 $117 3br/2ba
Serenity Drive 0.33 2004 $169,900 1,545 $110 3br/2ba
Jade Crossing 0.47 2006 $169,900 2,290 $74 3br/2.5ba
Tawny Lake 1.3 2007 $172,500 1,872 $92 2br/2ba
Staffordshire Estates 1.65 2009 $178,000 2,546 $70 3br/2.5ba
1.3201 2005 $179,900 2,258 $80 3br/2.5ba
1.4 2006 $219,900 2,822 $78 4br/3.5ba
Nature's Gate 0.28 2006 $179,900 2,572 $70 5br/2.5ba
0.3 2005 $219,000 2,680 $82 4br/3.5ba
Durango Court 0.3 2005 $182,000 3,000 $61 4br/3ba
Farmington Hills 0.28 2004 $184,900 4,084 $45 5br/4.5ba
0.28 2005 $210,000 3,584 $59 3br/2ba
Carrington Place 0.34 2005 $185,000 1,664 $111 2br/2ba
0.33 2008 $198,975 1,888 $105 4br/2.5ba
Crescent Oaks 1.65 2013 $189,900 2,537 $75 3br/2ba
1.65 2013 $199,900 1,882 $106 3br/2.5ba
Lafayette Falls 0.24 2004 $195,000 2,824 $69 4br/3.5ba
0.24 2010 $230,000 3,400 $68 4br/2.5ba
0.61 2007 $269,900 2,888 $93 4br/2.5ba
SOURCE:Multiple Listing Service;
Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table 11 Page 2 of 2
Summary of Selected Single-Family Listings
Houses Constructed Within The Past 10 Years
City of South Bend and Saint Joseph County, Indiana
April, 2014
Lot Unit List Unit
Subdivision/Area Size Year Built Price Size Price psf Configuration
Villas at Ireland Woods n/a 2009 $207,500 1,478 $140 2br/2ba
Annettas Court 1.7 2004 $254,900 2,645 $96 2br/3ba
Lakeview Estates 1.0 2008 $259,900 1,907 $136 3br/2ba
Bow Line Court 0.27 2014 $267,900 2,000 $134 3br/3.5ba
Westwood Knolls 0.27 2005 $289,900 3,527 $82 4br/2.5ba
0.33 2005 $325,000 2,938 $111 4br/3ba
Ireland Road 13 2011 $310,372 2,485 $125 2br/2ba
Whippoorwill Valley 0.5 2005 $319,000 3,800 $84 3br/3.5ba
Fernwood 0.3 2005 $399,900 3,373 $119 4br/3ba
SOURCE:Multiple Listing Service;
Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
Table 12
Optimum Market Position: 224 New Dwelling Units
The West Side Corridors Study Area
City of South Bend, Saint Joseph County, Indiana
April, 2014
Base Base Base
Number Rent/Price Avg. Unit Size Rent/Price
Housing Type Units Range*Range Per Sq. Ft.*
Multi-Family For-Rent
Apartments Over Retail 28 $600 to 450 to $1.23 to
Studios and 1-Bedrooms $800 650 $1.33
Apartments 100 $750 to 550 to $1.25 to
Studios to 2-Bedrooms $1,250 1,000 $1.36
Weighted Averages:$942 731 $1.29
Multi-Family For-Sale
4-Unit Building 12 $100,000 to 650 to $142 to
1- and 2-Bedrooms $135,000 950 $154
6-Unit Building 12 $110,000 to 700 to $130 to
1- to 3-Bedrooms $175,000 1,350 $157
Weighted Averages:$130,000 913 $142
Single-Family Attached For-Sale
2-Story Infill Rowhouses 36 $145,000 to 1,000 to $138 to
2- and 3-Bedrooms $200,000 1,450 $145
Weighted Averages:$172,500 1,225 $141
Single-Family Detached For-Sale
1- and 2-Story Infill Houses 36 $165,000 to 1,100 to $143 to
2- and 3-Bedrooms $215,000 1,500 $150
Weighted Averages:$190,000 1,300 $146
Total Units:224
NOTE:Base rents/prices in year 2014 dollars and exclude floor, view or lot premiums,
consumer options or upgrades.
SOURCE:Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.
ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
P.O. Box 4907
Clinton, New Jersey 08809
908-735-6336
info@ZVA.cc • www.ZVA.cc
Research & Strategic Analysis
ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITATIONS—
Every effort has been made to insure the accuracy of the data contained within this analysis.
Demographic and economic estimates and projections have been obtained from government
agencies at the national, state, and county levels. Market information has been obtained from
sources presumed to be reliable, including developers, owners, and/or sales agents. However,
this information cannot be warranted by Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. While the
methodology employed in this analysis allows for a margin of error in base data, it is assumed
that the market data and government estimates and projections are substantially accurate.
Absorption scenarios are based upon the assumption that a normal economic environment will
prevail in a relatively steady state during development of the subject property. Absorption
paces are likely to be slower during recessionary periods and faster during periods of recovery
and high growth. Absorption scenarios are also predicated on the assumption that the product
recommendations will be implemented generally as outlined in this report and that the
developer will apply high-caliber design, construction, marketing, and management techniques
to the development of the property.
Recommendations are subject to compliance with all applicable regulations. Relevant
accounting, tax, and legal matters should be substantiated by appropriate counsel.
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ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.
P.O. Box 4907
Clinton, New Jersey 08809
908 735-6336
www.ZVA.cc • info@ZVA.cc
Research & Strategic Analysis
RIGHTS AND STUDY OWNERSHIP—
Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. retains all rights, title and interest in the methodology and
target market descriptions contained within this study. The specific findings of the analysis are
the property of the client and can be distributed at the client’s discretion.
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ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC., 2014