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CITY OF SOUTH BEND OFFICE OF THE CLERK
<br /> days per year that are above ninety-five(95)degrees Fahrenheit.That is all of the summer and part
<br /> of the spring and fall. Again, those are the averages, not the extreme years. If this occurs, it will
<br /> be an unrecognizable climate. This is be accompanied by a, very likely, high humidity condition
<br /> as well.
<br /> He continued,Now, for South Bend,it is not as bad. It is a bit cooler up here. Historically,we have
<br /> about three (3) days per year that are above ninety-five (95) degrees. Again, going to the worst
<br /> case, by the 2080s we see almost sixty (60) days per year, on average. So, extreme heat is very
<br /> likely to play an important role which, as the students have already pointed out, results in human
<br /> health impacts especially in cities related to heat, humidity and air quality especially in older
<br /> people or people with existing health problems. Outdoor recreation may be impacted in the
<br /> summer months. It may be very difficult for people to do things that they have traditionally done
<br /> such as going for a run in the evening. It may be a life-threatening event if you have health issues.
<br /> There will be an impact on agricultural,terrestrial and aquic ecosystems. Forests, fish and wildlife
<br /> will experience dramatically different conditions. For example, I have doubts about whether
<br /> Midwest forests will look anything like they do now if we have something like those fifteen (15)
<br /> degrees of warming. A fire may be become part of the natural ecosystem in those kinds of
<br /> conditions. As I will show you later, energy supply and demand are also quite sensitive to
<br /> temperature.
<br /> He went on, Not too surprisingly, if we have a warming climate, frost days would change. Just
<br /> looking at South Bend, historically, we have about one hundred a twenty-seven (127) days per
<br /> year that the minimum temperatures are below thirty-two (32) degrees. As we go forward, in the
<br /> worst case,we have seventy-one(71)days. So,we have a pretty significant reduction in frost days.
<br /> We also have a longer frost-freeze season as a result of this. So, this (referencing a slide in the
<br /> presentation)shows the historical averages from 1915 to 2013. Between the last freeze in the spring
<br /> to the first(1St) freeze in the fall, on average, we have about one hundred and eighty(180) days. If
<br /> we go forward now to the 2050s, for the ensemble mean, we have about two hundred and twelve
<br /> (212) days. This is a longer growing season and this has a number of impacts. Plant hardiness
<br /> zones will change. Again, looking at St. Joseph County, and it's similar throughout the State, we
<br /> go from five-B (5B) to six-B (6B), so one (1) full zone. These plant hardiness zones are based on
<br /> the average minimum temperatures in the winter time. So, if we look at southern Indiana, for
<br /> example,we see historically that is about six-B (6B). So, you can think of this as northern Indiana
<br /> is becoming a lot like southern Indiana in terms of plant hardiness.
<br /> He continued, This has many different impact pathways, certainly for agriculture. We may see
<br /> sensitive crops like corn,which does not like very high temperatures,become increasingly difficult
<br /> to grow in southern Indiana. But we may see opportunities throughout the State, perhaps, to have
<br /> multiple crops because of a longer growing season. So, there are positives and negatives.
<br /> Recreational gardening, those who like plants sensitive to cold temperatures may be able to grow
<br /> them here. That is a good sign. We expect, once again, impacts to fish and wildlife. So, for
<br /> migratory birds, the timing of their migration may not coincide with food supplies in the
<br /> environment because plants are not necessarily triggered by temperature. They could be triggered
<br /> by light or other factors. We may see increased exposure to pests and diseases such as mosquitoes
<br /> and ticks, as you saw already in the student's presentation. We also expect to see plant and animal
<br /> invasive species doing better in this extreme climate than the native plants that currently live in
<br /> Indiana.
<br /> EXCELLENCE ACCOUNTABILITY INNOVATION INCLUSION EMPOWERMENT
<br /> 455 County-City Building 227 W.Jefferson Bvld South Bend,Indiana 46601.p 574.235.9221 f574.235.9173 TTD574.235.5567 www.southbendin.gov
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