02-18-19 Joint Health and Public Safety and Utilities

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"'CITY OF SOUTH BEND OFFICE OF THE CLERK He continued, The graph up here (referencing a slide in the presentation) comes from the International Energy Agency. It illustrates that if we enact sustainable development, by 2040, our energy-related CO2 emissions would be one third (1/3) of what they would be, and our energy demand would be around half of what it would be. This is compared to if we continue enacting current policy. As the data demonstrates, we've already committed a lot of damage. We can still successfully fight climate change but the only way we can do it is if we start fighting together. Mr. Verbrugge stated, We know we threw a lot of information at you today and because we have a meeting next week, we have a list of resources and reading that we would like to provide for the record (available in the City Clerk's Office). Alan Hamlet, 1102 North Lafayette Boulevard,stated,My role this evening is to give you a concise overview of the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment. The Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment was carried out under the auspices of the Purdue Climate Change Research Center. I'll introduce a couple of my co-authors.Michael Baldwin at Purdue and I lead the Climate Working Group for the Indiana Climate Change Impact Assessment. Kyuhyun Byun is my PhD student at the University of Notre Dame. Scott Robeson at Indiana University is an expert in climate and Melissa Widhalm is an outreach specialist who works for the Purdue Climate Change Research Center. These(referencing a slide in a presentation which is available in the City Clerk's Office) are a few resources in case people want to follow up on it. So, there is a nice website and there are a number of easy-to-read reports for the general public on the Purdue Climate Change Resource Center's website. There is a journal article that is, again, not too difficult and not too technical to read for the general public. He continued, I think the students have done a great job of giving an overview of how things have been changing and how they have been projected to change. So, we have a lot of information already about how climate has changed and some projections going forward. Now, as we think about how the climate is going to change in the future, we become very dependent upon computer models because, of course, we don't have observations for the future. So, global climate models are sophisticated computer models that simulate the complex interaction between the oceans, the land and the atmosphere. The experiments we are going to show today relate to changing the greenhouse gas concentrations according to several scenarios. So,a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario is called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) eight-point five (8.5). That will be the high end that we will show. Then a more moderate scenario is the RCP four-point five(4.5). He went on, So, in simple terms, RCP eight-point five (8.5) assumes that we continue to do what we have been doing.We have a very fossil-intensive economy that is based on the burning of fossil fuels and other sources. RCP four-point five (4.5) is if we take very significant action right away to bring things down by the end of the twenty-first (21') century. So, these scenarios are fed into the global climate models,the sophisticated computer models, and they simulate what will happen to the Earth's climate,over land,the ocean and so forth. So,what we are doing is we are extracting the data specifically over Indiana, a relatively small area. So, this (referencing a slide in the presentation) is the summary of what the global climate models say will happen to Indiana. This is a graph of what thirty-one (31) different global climate models say. So, there is a range of impacts. You can see these ranges. The upper-bound is the ninety-seventh (97th) percentile. The two-point fifth (2.5th) is the lower-bound and then there is a white line here that is the average of all of the thirty-one (31). This is for the RCP eight-point five (8.5), the red line, and the more EXCELLENCE ACCOUNTABILITY INNOVATION INCLUSION EMPOWERMENT 455 County-City Building 227W Jefferson Bvld South Bend,Indiana 46601 p 574.235.9221 f 574.235.9173 TTD 574.235.5567 www.southbendin.gov 11