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FIVE YEAR FINANCIAL FORECAST The City's five-year financial forecast includes as its first year the actua12006 Budget. The objective of the financial forecast is to provide a frame of reference for evaluating the City's financial condition, and it is used as a basis for decision making. The forecast was developed using a baseline environment; that is, revenues and expenditures were projected based primarily on growth patterns or inflation factors assuming the present level of services provided by the City. Anticipated inflation and historical growth rates are used to predict expenditure patterns, while revenues are projected by trend or by specific circumstances as each case may warrant. It is important to stress that the general assumption used when developing this forecast was that the services currently provided, as budgeted in the year 2006, will continue to be provided at the same level for the following four years. As needs change over time, service levels will also change; thus, future budgets may not necessarily reflect this assumption. As mentioned earlier in this document, the City takes a conservative approach when preparing operating budgets. Throughout the years, anticipated revenues have generally been underestimated for budget purposes, and expenditure budgets have been underspent. The multi- year forecast included in this section has been prepared using the same conservative approach embedded in the budgeting process. The City prepares its annual capital budget during a separate process aftcr the annual operating budget is prepared and approved (as more fully explained in Section D). As a result of this capital budgeting policy, these forecasts do not include specific capital expenditures beyond the year 2006. In beeping with the overriding theory behind appropriating dollars for capital projects based upon funds on hand, only operating expenditures are forecasted with the net operating surplus identified as funds available for future capital projects. Over the five-year forecast period, the City's revenue and expenditures are projected to maintain fairly constant growth patterns. The following information provides the general assumptions that were used in preparing the multi-year forecast: REVENUE ASSUMPTIQNS: • Property Tax Levies - increase 3.6% for 2007 and 0 for 200$ - 2010 per year Due to changes in Indiana Law, starting in 200$ property tax for property owners cannot exceed two percent of the gross assess value for the qualifying property. The estimated financial impact will be a loss of $6 million dollars of property tax revenue in 2008. • Auto and Commercial Vehicle Excise Taxes - I % increase per year • Payment in Lieu ofTaxes - 2.5% increase per year • Local Option Income Taxes - 2% increase per year. No additional local option income tax rate increases have been included that have not already been approved by the County Income Tax Council. • State Pension Relief Funds -includes the assumption that the amount to be received by the City from the State represents a minimum of 50% of the current year's total pension benefits paid by the City. B-40